Market Forecast

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The New Currency War

February 5, 2013

Unless you’ve traveled to Tokyo recently, you may not have noticed that over the past several months, the value of the Japanese yen has plummeted vs. rival foreign currencies. The yen’s decline is no accident, as the Japanese currency began heading lower right around the time it became apparent that the Japanese people were going […]

The Fed-Fueled Market Rolls on

January 30, 2013

 The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) acted as just about everyone expected, serving up a dovish dose of more of the same when it comes to monetary policy. The Fed kept its $85 billion per month quantitative easing (QE) program, while leaving interest rates unchanged.   The only thing different about this Fed meeting […]

The Market’s at New Highs, So What May Go Wrong?

January 23, 2013

  The bulls are screaming, and during the past week we’ve seen the S&P 500 Index surge to its highest point in more than five years. In fact, the last time the broad measure of the domestic equity market was at this elevated level was back in 2008. Of course, we all know what a […]

A Holding Pattern and the Ugly Side of the Cliff

January 15, 2013

  The markets have been relatively quiet during the past week. So far in 2013, the S&P 500 is up less than 1%, even though stocks shot up in the year’s first trading day. After the initial euphoria about the tax side of the fiscal cliff deal, the market is beginning to worry about the […]

The New China Bull

January 9, 2013

  Stocks in the United States enjoyed a nice run higher after the mini-deal on the tax side of the fiscal cliff. Next up is the brewing battle over spending cuts and the debt ceiling, and this looming fight likely will have a lot of pros on Wall Street ducking for cover. The next political […]

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Less Money in Your Pocket in 2013

January 2, 2013

Finally, the fiscal cliff has been resolved—sort of. Unfortunately, the patchwork solution on the tax side of the equation means that nearly all of us will have less money in our pockets as we begin 2013.   I say “on the tax side” because the so-called mini deal put in place yesterday pushes the issues […]

A Bullish Consensus on 2013?

December 26, 2012

The year is nearly in the books, and now is the time when all of the professional pundits, amateur speculators, and major brokerage houses give out their forecasts for the year ahead.   According to a recent Barron’s cover story, "Outlook 2013," there is a bullish consensus among the financial elite that the equity market […]

Deal or No Deal?

December 19, 2012

  As it has for so many weeks now, negotiations about the fiscal cliff continue to dominate the trading landscape. Will there be a deal, or will there be no deal? At this point, the equity markets are betting that a deal will get done. I take that view because during the past week we’ve […]

A Guy Named “Cliff” and a Guy Named Ben

December 12, 2012

  There are two guys taking center stage in the market right now. The first guy’s name is “Cliff,” and the second guy’s name is Ben.   Well, “Cliff” isn’t really a guy. Rather, “Cliff” is short for the “Fiscal Cliff.” As long as this issue remains unresolved, Wall Street will continue its tentative and […]

A Fiscal Stalemate, and a Browning Apple

December 5, 2012

  I know you probably are tired of hearing about how the fiscal cliff issue is dominating the equity markets right now, but the fact is that this issue is the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in the room. Until we see a resolution to this issue, traders are going to continue to be very nervous.   […]

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