Market Forecast

Obama Impact on Your Money, Part II

On Tuesday, Sept. 15, we conducted the second installment of our teleconference on "The Obama Impact on Your Money." Judging by the slew of emails I received, the event was a resounding success. I want to thank everyone who joined us on the call. I know many of you have been interested in the material […]

Focused on Falling Yields

  Regular readers of the Alert know that I often present charts of key market indicators such as the S&P 500 Index, oil, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of leading market segments such as China. Today, I want to take a look at an equally important, yet not as closely followed market measure, long-term Treasury bond […]

Strategies for an Overextended Market

This market is just downright crazy. It seems like no matter what happens in the economy, with earnings, on the political front or on the world stage, stocks still act like the Energizer Bunny — they keep going, and going, and going and going. To give you a sense of just how far stocks are […]

Is This the Start of a Market Wane?

Today’s market pullback could be the start of a wane in the recent bear market rally. I say could be, because it’s way too early to tell if the steam has run out on Wall Street’s summer bash. I think one thing we can say about this market is that it is ripe for a […]

Still a Bull Market Skeptic

Part of my duties each day is to keep up on all the financial news chatter. Yesterday, I was struck with the number of financial pundits who claim that the recession is now over, and that we’ve already entered a new bull market. Adding fuel to this fire is the current Newsweek cover story that […]

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Summertime, and the Rally Is Raging

It’s summertime and the living is easyFish are jumping and the cotton is highYour daddy’s rich and your mama’s good-lookingHush, little baby don’t you cry –Sam Cooke, "Summertime" I live in Southern California, and out here you definitely can tell that summer has arrived. The heat’s been raging here for the past couple of days, […]

Is the Rally Over?

Back in March, at the very beginning of what became a huge run higher for stocks, I was skeptical that the market could mount a sustainable rally. As the months went by, I remained skeptical; however, the market proved that it could indeed make a protracted move higher that lasted for several months. Now the […]

The Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for a Bull Market Call

Today is tax day, a dreary day for most Americans — especially if you have the skills, ability and fortitude to earn a substantial amount of money each year. Yes, this is the day the government says, in essence, pay up, sucker!

Now you’ve probably heard about the many tax “tea parties” being held today throughout our nation. I’ve read that there were going to be well over 1,500 tax protests held around the country, with at least one taking place in all 50 states.

Where I live in Orange County, Calif., I’ve heard there will be over 50 separate local tax protests. Honestly, I can’t say that I blame anyone for feeling the need to protest the high tax burden imposed by not just the federal government, but also by state and local governments. […]

Beware of the Hope Rally

This week started out with a pause in the recent market rally. However, today the play button on the rally seems to have been pushed once again. I think Monday’s pullback makes sense, especially in the context of the big run we’ve seen in stocks during the past four weeks. I also think that we could see a continuation of this bear-market rally, possibly all the way up to the 200-day moving average. […]

Analyzing This Bear Market Rally

Looking back over the landscape of the markets, the S&P 500 Index hit an intra-day low of 666 on March 6, 2009. Since that point, the market has rallied more than 16% through yesterday’s close. It begs the question — could this rally extend higher? […]