Market Forecast

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A Flight to Safety

May 5, 2010

In the midst of the current equity sell-off, we’ve seen a big-time flight to safety in U.S. Treasury bonds. The chart below of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond fund (TLT) clearly illustrates the heavy money flow into Treasuries during the last couple of weeks. This move should come as no surprise to you, […]

A Check on the Four Horsemen

April 28, 2010

As the market was hit with a sizeable amount of selling in Tuesday’s trade, courtesy of those aforementioned debt downgrades and the grilling of Goldman Sachs executives by the Senate, I thought this would be a good time to take another look at the four horsemen of the market. I’ve mentioned these four indicators before […]

The Goldman Affair

April 21, 2010

On Friday, we received news that Wall Street icon Goldman Sachs had come under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for allegedly misleading its customers by withholding “vital information” about a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) named Abacus. The news rocked the market, but in the days following the Friday Goldman sell-off, stocks […]

A Tale of Two Investors

April 14, 2010

The Dow now trades above 11,000, and the S&P 500 just breached the psychologically significant 1,200 mark. As this bull market passes new milestones, there are two types of investors left wondering how best to play this roaring ride. I call this a tale of two investors and, yes, I borrowed the concept from the […]

Yields: A Fly in the Equity Ointment

April 7, 2010

If you haven’t paid much attention to bond yields lately, I have a news flash for you –long-term Treasury bond yields, i.e., long-term interest rates, are on the move. Look below at the chart of the 30-Year Bond Yield and you can see the breakout in this sector. I think this trend could be with […]

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Will Stocks Ever Go Down Again?

April 7, 2010

There’s no denying that this market currently is immersed in the strongest uptrend we’ve seen in the past decade. Stocks have made a miraculous recovery off of the dramatic lows of March 2009, and now it feels like stocks will never go down again. Even in the face of bad news, this market keeps pushing […]

Checking in on the Four Horsemen of the Markets

March 31, 2010

Today marks the end of the first quarter, and what a quarter of action it’s been in the financial markets. We kicked off the year with a continuation of the buying we saw in December, but by mid-January, stocks began retreating. The decline lasted only until the first week of February, however, and since then, […]

Your Risk-Management Roadmap

March 24, 2010

The sharp sell-off we witnessed in late January and early February, followed by the 180-degree turnaround in stocks from early February to the present has many investors in a quandary about how best to navigate this tricky market terrain. I’ll admit that I’ve found it hard to identify a good entry point for putting new […]

The March Higher Continues

March 17, 2010

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve let Wall Street know that it’s going to enjoy an “extended period” of low-cost capital. The central bank was widely expected to leave interest rates untouched, and it did that. But all eyes were on the Fed’s accompanying statement, which included the “extended period” language that the bulls wanted to […]

Happy Anniversary, Mr. Bull Market

March 10, 2010

The date was March 9, 2009, and the S&P 500 Index was trading at its lowest level since the mid-1990s. The equity market was in literal freefall, and nearly everyone on both Wall Street and Main Street was worried that the U.S. economy — and the U.S. equity markets — were about to collapse. Well, […]

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