December 2007 Issue

3.94…

Discipline, patience and preparation made the Boston Red Sox 2007 World Champions. Disciplined teams that take the most pitches per plate appearance wear out opposing starting pitchers fastest. Hitting against less-threatening relief pitchers as early in a game as possible often has good results. For 2007, the Sox and the tribe tied for the best number in baseball at 3.94 pitches (STATS, Inc.) per plate appearance. And all nine of the Sox starters were among baseball’s most disciplined 85 batters.

Superman Scouting

The Red Sox had a huge advantage in the playoffs. Their advance scouting and preparation was so good that USA Today reported that the scouts "provided reports so precise the Red Sox players thought they were going into the field with cheat sheets."

Dick Young’s 4% Draw Strategy

My goal with these monthly strategy reports is to give you the same kind of advantage going into retirement. My Big Idea starts off with the mid-year 2008 onset of a retirement wave that includes over 75 million Americans. I aim these strategy reports directly to those of you in this group. If you are already retired or are part of the throng getting set to relax and enjoy retirement, your key number to remember is 4%. The discipline of my adjusted 4% retirement plan will keep you on course, no matter the direction of the financial markets. If you commit this "Simple Is Sophisticated" strategy to memory, I guarantee you will never veer off course.

First, I have two basic assumptions for you: (1) Your portfolio is 50/50 dividend-paying blue-chip stocks, or a similar fund mix, and a mix of blue-chip fixed-income, including U.S. Treasuries, no-load RCY-advised intermediate- and short-term bond funds, and investment-grade preferreds. (2) You want to pass your portfolio intact to your heirs. That is, you do not intend to spend your capital.

Draw Whichever Is Less

So with the above preparation in mind and with a $1 million portfolio, here’s your stay-the-course math. Each quarter, draw 1% or $10,000 of your current portfolio value, whichever is less. Every two years inflation adjusts your draw to reflect the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If, by example, the CPI has increased by 6% over a two-year period, your draw would be 1.06%/quarter, or $10,600, whichever is less. The above is keyed, of course, to my basic assumption of an initial 4% annual draw.

No Principal Cannibalization

By adjusting your draw to reflect both market conditions and inflation, you prevent your principal from being cannibalized and your portfolio from losing purchasing power. Should the value of your portfolio drop in your first year of draw, you would not be drawing $40,000, or 4%, on your portfolio. Instead of drawing $10,000/quarter, you would draw 1% of your portfolio each quarter. Stick patiently with this plan, and you will achieve the comfort and success in retirement that you desire and deserve.

Wisdom From Russell

To further enhance your chances for a worry free retirement, remember the story that I’ve often quoted from Richard Russell’s Rich Man, Poor Man. As Russell points out, the wealthy investor has a major advantage over the stock market amateur and neophyte trader. The wealthy investor doesn’t need the markets because he already has all the income he needs via bonds, t-bills, money market funds, and real estate. The little guy who tries to force the market to do something for him is a guaranteed loser. He doesn’t understand values or comprehend the power of compounding. (Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, P.O. box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038)

Compound Interest Key

Here’s an example of why the two most important words in investing are compound interest. If you invest $10,000 at 10% for 10 years and draw your 10% ($1,000) each year, at the end of the 10 years your value is the $10,000 initial investment plus $10,000 in draws, or $20,000. If instead you allow your returns to compound, your value is your $10,000 initial investment, plus your $10,000 in simple interest, plus $5,900 more from compounding, or $25,900. That’s a 37% gain from compounding.

Run the math out to 40 years (ideal for a young person just entering the workforce and investing early in an IRA for retirement), and 91% of the gain over 40 years will come from compounding. Little wonder most folks don’t comprehend the power of compound interest.

Retirement Compounders +12.5%

Young Research’s Retirement Compounders model portfolio (based on the dividend-paying stocks carried for you in my Monster Master List) is up 12.5% year to date (unaudited) versus, for example, 3.2% for the widely publicized Legg Mason Value Trust, 6.3% for the consistent Olstein Financial Fund, and 9% for the Value Line Arithmetic. The discipline of dividend-payers is the key to the consistency of Young Research’s Retirement Compounders and your gains with my common stock Monster Master List.

Railroads

Last month I added Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) and Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE: CP) to my Monster Master List. These railroads will join Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC). Burlington Northern and Union Pacific operate primarily in the western half of the United States, while Norfolk Southern operates in the eastern half of the United States, and Canadian Pacific operates from coast to coast in the northern U.S. and in southern Canada.

Try Buying Rail Beds

Railroads are an attractive business. Barriers to entry are high, substitutes are disadvantaged, pricing power is favorable, and long-term demand is reliable. Railroads also benefit from powerful operating leverage. Operating leverage turns small revenue increases into big earnings gains. In the last year, a few of the major railroads turned a 15% revenue gain into a 60% increase in operating profit. Of course, operating leverage works in reverse when revenues decline, but over time, revenue growth in the railroad industry mirrors GDP growth.

The Big Grain Mover

For new money, favor Burlington Northern and Canadian Pacific. Burlington Northern is the only major railroad that is still reporting volume growth during the housing recession. The railroad hauls more grain products than any other railroad, including grain for ethanol, and ethanol itself. Burlington Northern is also a big mover of low-sulfur coal. The company hauls enough coal to light up 10% of the nation’s homes. My relative-strength chart on Burlington Northern shows power versus the S&P 500.

Canadian Pacific was the first transcontinental railroad in North America, and today it is the region’s sixth-largest railroad by revenue. Canadian Pacific is making aggressive moves into the energy transportation business. The company has plans to lay new tracks into Alberta’s oil sands processing area, and a recently announced acquisition of Dakota, Minnesota & Eastern Railroad (DM&E) will allow Canadian Pacific to build new tracks into the coalfields of Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. DM&E also provides Canadian Pacific with exposure to the grain-and-ethanol transportation business. My chart on Canadian Pacific shows the stock trading in line with its long-term trend.

Love the Rails and Berkshire

Warren Buffet is hot on the railroad stocks. He has taken a large position in Burlington Northern and also reports stakes in Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. Speaking of Buffet, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKa) looks attractive based on my charts. My price chart on Berkshire Hathaway shows the stock making a powerful upside breakout. Invest with Warren — buy the railroads and add to your position in Berkshire Hathaway.

Agricultural Commodities Checkup

The mini-portfolio of agricultural commodities securities that I recommended in the April issue of Intelligence Report continues to benefit from rising prices for wheat, corn, soybeans, and other crops. The laggard in the agricultural commodities space has been cotton. As farmers dedicate more acres to wheat, corn, and soybeans, cotton acreage is likely to decline. A decline in cotton acreage will leave the crop susceptible to price spikes next season. Direct cotton-plays for retail investors beyond a position in a futures contract are sparse. I may have more for you next month on potential cotton plays.

In the meantime, you can benefit from higher cotton prices indirectly through your shares of Syngenta (NYSE: SYT), Cresud (NASDAQ: CRESY), and Alico (NASDAQ: ALCO). Switzerland-based Syngenta is a leader in crop protection and ranks third in the high-value commercial-seeds market. Syngenta also provides exposure to my favored Swiss franc and rising demand for agricultural commodities. The stock looks especially strong on my relative-strength chart. Buy.

Invest in Argentina

Rising demand for agricultural commodities is also driving up the price of farmland. Cresud and Alico own large swaths of farmland. Cresud’s farmland is in Argentina and can be purchased through an investment in Cresud shares for a fraction of the cost of an acre of farmland in the U.S. or European Union.

Alico Unrecognized

Alico has been the laggard in my agricultural commodities portfolio since my initial recommendation. The stock is likely being held back by investors who are making a big to-do over a tax situation with the IRS.

The root of Alico’s tax situation is that the IRS believes that Agri-Insurance, an Alico subsidiary, did not pay all of its taxes for the years 2000 to 2004. The IRS considered Agri-Insurance to be a tax-exempt organization as long as the amount of premiums collected from non-Alico customers was under $350,000. Alico met this requirement for the years 2000 to 2004, but Agri-Insurance also sold land in those years, which generated additional income. The IRS says the land sales disqualified Agri-Insurance from being a tax-exempt organization.

The total potential liability to Alico, including penalties and interest–based on the IRS’s interpretation of the tax rules–is around $120 million. Alico is disputing the IRS’s interpretation and believes that the ultimate liability may be less than $120 million. The company has already reserved almost $80 million to pay for any potential liability.

A potential liability of $120 million sounds high for a company with a market cap of only $348 million, but the reality is that Alico is worth far more than $348 million and the company has already set aside the majority of the maximum potential liability.

Young Research estimates the value of Alico to be in the neighborhood of $80 per share versus the current share price of $43. The valuation uses farmland values estimated in 2005 by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. And, at $80 per share, Young Research is being conservative. My chart on the NCREIF Farmland Index shows that, since year end, 2005 farmland values have increased by over 30%. Buy Alico.

American Funds

The Wall Street Journal reported recently that American Funds’ Growth Fund of America just passed the $200-billion asset mark. How does a mutual fund grow to manage $200 billion? A 5.75% front-end sales load and a 12b-1 kickback to bribe brokers to push the fund is a start. The fund also must remain open regardless of what is in the best interest of shareholders.

The Growth Fund of America should have been closed at about $100 billion. Just to take a 2% position in a new stock requires the fund to invest $4 billion. Young Research estimates that the number of stocks that the Growth Fund of America can buy without violating the fund’s fundamental investment policies is 87. For a 1% position, the field of candidates moves out to only 185. After accounting for management fees and transaction costs (huge when you take a $4-billion position) the only chance the Growth Fund of America has of even matching the performance of the S&P 500 is through sheer luck. Stay far away from this fund.

Top 10 Common Stock Countdown

(1) Boeing (NYSE: BA): My price chart for BA shows that the last strong buying opportunity was seen in September 2006. Recent news about delays on the 787 Dreamliner has flustered the quarterly earnings crowd badly enough that BA is now available to you below its 200-day moving average. The announced six-month delay of Dreamliner deliveries is a non-event. Airbus is still light-years behind BA. The sell-off in BA shares is overdone. Compared with the Dreamliner, the jets that airlines use now are crates, made for shipping people like baggage. The Dreamliner will be up to 20% more fuel-efficient than its competitors, and have room for up to 5,400 cubic feet of cargo, giving the jet a better range and more comfort for passengers. Airlines will continue to line up to buy 787s.

(2) Unilever (NYSE: UL): Did you know that UL is using nano-technology to make foods taste better and household products work more effectively? The company describes ice cream not as dessert, but as a "complex multi-phase structure consisting of ice crystals, air bubbles and fat particles dispersed in a continuous phase consisting of unfrozen sugar solution." Try asking for that on a cone! UL is the world leader in ice cream, spreads, teas, dressings, meal replacement, skin care, and deodorants. UL’s shareholder-friendly management has a strong record of returning cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. My price chart shows UL’s strong upward trend.

(3) Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ): While other pharmaceutical companies were unloading their consumer-health subsidiaries, J&J wisely committed to the lucrative consumer-health market. J&J’s consumer-health business owns a set of vanguard brands that includes BAND-AID, Tylenol, and Neutrogena. Consumer products give J&J a hedge against the long dry-spells in the prescription drug business. My long-term trend chart shows J&J is undervalued.

(4) Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC): In addition to owning oil and gas operations in 37 states, APC is a big player in the Gulf of Mexico. Domestic oil and gas properties are looking more desirable as oil-rich nations ratchet up the pace of nationalization. Nationalization of oil assets is like outright confiscation. Some of these countries invite major oil companies to explore and develop their oil properties and then show them the exit just after all of the heavy lifting has been done. Recent dustups in Venezuela, Russia, and the Caspian Sea should remind investors of the value of domestic oil and gas reserves. Over 80% of APC’s revenues are generated in North America. My relative-strength chart shows APC shares outpacing the S&P 500 in 2007.

(5) Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP): Coal accounts for almost 95% of U.S. hydrocarbon reserves (in BTUs). Clean technologies are being developed to burn the vast coal wealth of the U.S. more efficiently to increase energy independence. IGCC, or integrated-gasification combined cycle, is a method of turning coal into hydrogen gas or "syngas." IGCC technology might someday provide hydrogen for fuel cell-powered vehicles, and hydrogen gas-powered electricity plants. ARLP is the fourth-largest coal producer in the eastern U.S. and will benefit from emerging clean-coal technologies. My long-term trend chart shows ARLP headed back toward trend.

(6) Southwest Water (NASDAQ: SWWC): Severe droughts in the southern U.S. have yet again proven the worth of companies with access to water. In October, the U.S. Drought Monitor classified portions of 15 states as "in extreme drought." In South Carolina, the weather has been so dry that baptisms at two Baptist churches were cancelled when the springs used for the ceremony dried up. Southwest Water provides water services in states across the southern U.S. My relative-strength chart shows that Southwest has bottomed out against the S&P.

(7) British Petroleum (NYSE: BP): BP’s newest clean-energy campaign pairs it up with none other than Junk-Mart. BP will be powering 22 stores in California and Hawaii with solar panels placed on top of store roofs. If this is another scheme to attract high-end shoppers, it won’t work. Crowded aisles, long lines, and cheap plastic merchandise are big turnoffs to the high-end shopper. On the other side of this deal, the "beyond petroleum" slogan that BP has adopted looks great on PR releases, but reality looks even better. BP still generates 96% of its profit from oil and gas production, refining, and marketing. My chart shows BP is posting higher highs and higher lows against the S&P.

(8) Nestle (OTC: NSRGY): Now that autumn is in full swing and Thanksgiving approaches, a Nestle facility in Morton, Illinois, is working tirelessly to supply 90% of America’s canned pumpkin pie filling. The farms around Morton plant 5,000 acres of Dickinson pumpkins annually to send to the canning facility in Morton. 50 million pies are baked every year with Libby’s (a Nestle subsidiary) filling. Nestle is the world’s-largest food producer and owns famous brands: Libby’s, Poland Spring, Gerber and Nescafe. My long-term trend chart shows Nestle is below trend.

(9) Rayonier (NYSE: RYN): Rayonier has mitigated losses from the construction downturn by selling more of its timber to pulp mills to take advantage of strong demand in that area. Impressively, sales in the Timber division were up compared with last year. Rayonier relies on a broad product base including its Performance Fibers division that supplies materials for items as varied as tires, cigarette filters, and film. That type of product diversification proves its worth during a construction downturn. Rayonier is flat on its back against the S&P 500.

(10) HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC): Most of the recent hype surrounding HSBC has been generated by an activist investor that few institutional investors seem to be taking seriously. Knight Vinke, a New York asset-management company run by Eric Knight, has been fishing for support in the media, but the big boys aren’t biting. Support is hard to rally because HSBC is already addressing many of Knight’s complaints. Eric Knight believes that HSBC is a great brand and should have a higher valuation and so do I.

Puget Energy

Puget Energy (NYSE: PSD), a Washington-based electric utility on my Monster Master List, has agreed to be acquired and taken private by a consortium of Canadian and Australian investors. The takeover offer values each share of Puget Energy at $30 or 25% above the pre-announcement price. Puget Energy expects the acquisition to close in the second half of 2008. Considering the amount of time and regulatory risk involved in the deal, I want you to sell your shares of Puget Energy. If you are looking to delay capital gains until next year, sell your shares after January 1.

A Takeover Coming

Polaris (NYSE: PII) may be the next company on my Monster Master List to be taken over. Options volume on Polaris rose recently on speculation of a takeover from Honda. A purchase of Polaris would be a savvy move by Honda. Polaris is a well-run company with an attractive mix of products. Customers have taken a liking to Polaris’s Ranger line of ATVs. Ranger ATV sales fueled 15% sales growth in the company’s ATV segment in the third quarter. A 15% growth rate is exceptional considering that Polaris is currently reducing shipments of non-Ranger ATVs to dealers. Polaris even raised earnings guidance for the entire year based on the strong sales and dealer enthusiasm for their new Ranger RZR™ side-by-side utility vehicle. Buy.

Scoring Big with Ruger

Did you defeat inertia and sell your shares of Sturm, Ruger (NYSE: RGR) based on my advice in the September Intelligence Report? I hope so. My price chart shows the stock plummeted 49% recently after reporting lower than expected earnings for the third quarter. Any investor actually reading the company’s 10-Qs in recent quarters would have realized a fall was imminent. The quality of earnings has been terrible. But the momentum-investors who are responsible for bidding the shares up so high would have a hard time even defining earnings quality, let alone locating the flashing red signal in the financial statements indicating poor earnings quality. Not everybody was fooled, of course: insiders sold prior to the decline, a few shorts saw the drop coming, and you sold in September. I may recommend Sturm, Ruger again in the future, but for now I want you to stay on the sidelines counting your big profits while the momentum-players clear.

Citigroup Will Regroup

Sentiment toward Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares is, to be kind, falling. The quarterly earnings crowd is turning against the stock and spouting out scenarios that are being sensationalized by the media. The issues with the Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) sponsored by major banks were not anticipated by investors or even the companies’ CEOs. A house-cleaning at many of the major money centers and investment banks is in order. Citigroup is certainly at the top of the list of banks in need of a management overhaul. Prince and company are not getting the job done. Citigroup is a world-class franchise with a portfolio of very valuable businesses not being recognized by the market. There will continue to be temporary headline risk in the shares, but Citigroup pays a dividend, tends to increase that dividend, and trades at a 10X multiple on depressed earnings. Stick with your shares.

What’s Up & What’s Down

What isn’t up? All but two REIT funds on my What’s Up & What’s Down list are up year-to-date. And, the two REIT funds that are down report scant losses of 2.9% and 3.7% year-to-date. The accelerating depreciation of the U.S. dollar is leading to strong gains in my international and natural resource funds. You are looking at a 45% gain in Fidelity Canada (FICDX), a 49% gain in iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH), a 47% gain in iShares MSCI Australia (EWA), a 40% gain in iShares MSCI Singapore (EWS), a 44% gain in Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining (VGPMX), and a 39% gain in T. Rowe Price New Era (PRNEX); and a recent surge in the price of gold has pushed streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD) up 25% year-to-date. These are returns you would expect to see in individual stocks, not from a diversified fund holding hundreds of positions in some cases.

You are right on track with the fixed-income component of your portfolio. My favored Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX) fund is up 4.8% year-to-date, even as most mortgage-backed securities (MBS) decline in value. Compare the 4.8% return on the Vanguard GNMA fund with the -0.7% return on Fidelity’s Mortgage Securities Fund. GNMA bonds are backed by the full-faith-and-credit pledge of the U.S. government. The credit concerns roiling non-GNMA MBS are a non-event for Vanguard GNMA.

The WSJ reports that "Legg Mason Value Trust is trailing the S&P 500 stock index by more than five percentage points in 2007, according to Morningstar Inc. Such performance issues led investors to withdraw $9.6 billion (a shocking amount) from Legg’s stock funds and $1 billion from cash-management accounts in the most recent quarter." First, I’ve never liked the mix of names in the Value Trust. But the overriding sham here is the misuse of the word investors. Traders, perhaps. Naïve horse-out-of-the-barn speculators, probably. But not investors. A given fund has some bad quarters, and billions of dollars flow out? It’s insanity. The words patience, discipline and compound interest apparently are lost on the departing Legg Mason crowd. This is not what investing is all about. Do not lose focus on proper portfolio balance. In recent years, I have made so much money on the equities side from the names above (you should be in the same boat) that it has been easy to be too light on my fixed-income side. Is it time for catch up? Stay balanced.

Here & There

Political economist Laurence Brahm, writing in the South China Morning Post, notes, "The consumer price index (China) increased 6.5 percent last month from August last year–an almost 11-year high. Food prices took the lead, shooting up 18.2%. The logical response of China’s production-consumer chain will be to produce increasingly substandard foodstuffs." Regarding Russia, Reuters reports from Moscow: "Russia may return to double-digit inflation in 2007." In August, U.S. home prices recorded the biggest fall in more than 15 years. And in recent months, the U.S. has fought through a nasty credit crunch. Worldwide, big financial institutions have already written down over $20 billion of mortgage securities and corporate loans. The dislocation in the financial markets is probably the worst since Mr. Putin’s Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998.

Remember Long-Term Capital Management with its Nobel Prize-winning economist directors? Well, LTCM folded in 1998 after losing over $4 billion in less than five months. As recently as mid June, a Business Week’s headline for its lead article on the economy was "Stop Thinking Rate Cut, Start Thinking Rate Hike." The ink for that article had hardly dried when the Fed started cutting rates. Now a leading business daily alerts readers that "More Cuts From The Fed Seem Inevitable." That same article noted that a Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists predicted a 3.2% annual rate increase for third quarter GDP. Instead, following 0.6% and 3.8% gains in the first two quarters, GDP grew by a remarkable 3.9%. This solid growth was produced despite the drag of a -1.05% from home building.

On the upside, consumers kicked in with a 2.11% gain led by Luxury Goods Supercycle buyers using their American Express (NYSE: AXP) Platinum and Black cards. These affluent U.S. card members helped AMX produce a 13% increase in spending, while spending by card members outside the U.S. roared by 23%. Continue to buy AMX. Exporters contributed 0.93% to third quarter GDP growth. My continued favored group of U.S. stocks is the dividend-paying big blue-chip exporters, like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Rising demand in China and Brazil could well mean Coke’s biggest gain in annual revenue in 13 years. Continue to buy Coke. And check out KO’s great Glaceau Vitaminwater now endorsed by the Patriot’s Tom Brady.

Just as the interest rate forecast for rate hikes last June was nuts, so perhaps is the current bandwagon for more cuts. The Fed’s reflation is croaking the U.S. dollar, and gold’s price is going through the roof. One of my main disciplines in recent quarters has been an anti U.S. dollar/pro precious metals and international securities theme. In the first three quarters, the U.S. dollar is down 9% versus the euro, 15% versus the Australian dollar, and a staggering 19% versus the Canadian dollar. U.S. economic growth will slow in coming quarters, but exports will continue to lead the way. Along with export-oriented, dividend-paying blue chips, I love the North American rails carried in my Monster Master List. Last year, 200,000 more millionaires were created in Asia, with the fastest growth in Singapore. I am adding to my position in iShares Singapore (EWS) (up 40.6% YTD). I’m beefing up my fixed-income with Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade (VFICX) and Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX). I’m also adding to my Third Ave International Value (TAVIX). And with all the despair in real estate, I’m buying more Fidelity International Real Estate (FIREX). All, of course, are advised for you. Make it a good month.

Warm regards,

Richard C. Young

P.S. Go to www.youngresearch.com for critical real estate intelligence, breaking items on the terrorism front, the 2008 presidential horserace, and my 2007 record and compilation of the year.

P.P.S. I’ve never seen as many Harleys on dealer showroom floors and even some southern Harley dealers don’t want trade-ins. As to the stock here at $50/share, look out below.

P.P.P.S. Laura D’Andrea Tyson, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, tells WSJ readers regarding retirement that "simplicity is the key to ensuring a comfortable retirement." To achieve the utmost in simplicity, stick with the names that I bring to you in my Monster Master Lists and consolidate your portfolio assets at Vanguard or Fidelity.

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