November 2007 Issue

Don’t Make No Sense…

Back in the 1950s, when I was growing up in Cleveland Heights and Shaker Heights, Ohio, the Weatherhead Company (now part of Eaton) was a premier family-run manufacturer of brass fittings et al. CEO A.J. Weatherhead ruled the roost. At important company meetings, Harry Adams, a dapper little fellow without a college degree but with lots of common sense, sat next to A.J. Senior management gathered for big decisions. Many were engineers and college grads from bastions of learning such as MIT. Often at the end of a contentious session, A.J. would ask, "Well what do you think, Harry?" On more than one occasion, Harry’s response was, "It don’t make no sense." And that would be that. Whatever the idea, it was killed on the spot.

Hedge Funds Hammered

Today’s sub-prime lending mess has many institutional investors wringing their hands. Various hedge funds have been hammered. How do investors think hedge funds as a group can beat market returns with their baggage of 2% management fees and 20%-of-gains performance fees? I’m quite certain Harry Adams would have thought, "It don’t make no sense."

Ex a scant genius or so, the only way for hedge funds to win big is to be leveraged to the hilt and pray that one is on the right side of whatever series of guesses are made. And speaking of praying, the inimitable jazz impresario George Wein’s response to a JazzTimes question on how he keeps physically fit: "I pray."

Recession: A Nonevent

In a recent Wall Street Journal feature, the editors wrote, "While economists jawbone about whether the U.S. will sink into recession, investors are already thinking of ways to prepare their stock portfolio for a downturn." But a recession should be a complete nonevent for you as an investor who is comfortably counterbalanced as I have been advising. And what about the probability of a recession? Check out my charts #1 and #2 in your Economic Supplement. The leaders have long since declined enough to signal the potential for a recession. But as chart #2 shows, the broad-based economy to date is fighting off a recession. Furthermore, chart #9 shows that Moving the Goods remains in an uptrend.

Super Global Growth

As for the housing slump causing a recession, turn to my Big Picture feature. The weight of the evidence so far is no recession. And soaring copper prices certainly do not point to a weak economy. Foreign economic growth is solid, with a plentitude of big U.S. exporters racking up huge gains in earnings. Here’s what I see for 2008 GDP growth in pivotal foreign economies: China +9%, Russia +6%, India +8%, and South Korea +5%. Lots of opportunity for big U.S. exporters to score. My long-favored Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) (a Top 10 Countdown favorite) is a perfect example of the continuing success of colossal U.S. exporters.

Exports Booming

The editors of BusinessWeek reported on the good news for Japan and South Korea. Both countries are "supplying steel, heavy equipment, and construction services to their fast-growing Asian neighbors." According to a Hyundai Heavy Industries VP, "We are inundated with orders." My continued top-favored sector of U.S. companies is dividend-paying exporters.

I know it’s easy to get worked up about the sub-prime sector mess. But as Fed Chief Ben Bernanke tells BusinessWeek, "The troubles in the sub-prime sector seem unlikely to seriously spill over to the broader economy or the financial system."

Project 8.1% from Stocks

I don’t spend any time forecasting the stock market. Instead, I stick to my basic guiding principles that stocks do best—if interest rates are stable or falling and the economy is expanding—in the year before a presidential election, and the year of a presidential election. Here’s how I calculate a normalized 50/50 bond/stock potential portfolio total return. I simply add the inverse of the Dow’s P/E to the Dow yield (today 8.1%) to an intermediate fixed-income proxy yield (Vanguard GNMA 5.2%) and divide by two. This back-of-the-matchbook exercise offers a normalized 50/50 portfolio total return expectation of 6.6%. Classic bull markets start from a base of high yields (5% to 6%) and low P/Es (below 10X). Today’s yield on the Dow is barely above 2%. No way are we in a value environment. If you are retired or soon to be, my advice is to stick to 50/50 with dividend-paying big blue-chip exporters and investment-grade fixed income. Year to date, the total return on Young Research’s Retirement Compounders is 9.45% (unaudited), a comforting return fueled by dividends.

A Foul Ball

As a result of a recent Federal Court decision, brokerage firms had to shut down all their fee-based brokerage accounts by October 1. Fee-based brokerage accounts were a devious invention by brokerage companies to offer fee-based accounts without having to register as investment advisors. Brokers, of course, have always offered advisory accounts, but they pushed clients into fee-based brokerage accounts to avoid the heavier regulatory burden of advisory accounts. Registered investment-advisory accounts are held to a fiduciary standard, whereas brokerage accounts are held to a suitability standard. The definitions of each in my words: A fiduciary must put your interests ahead of his interests; whereas a broker held to a suitability standard can load your account up with all the garbage that his firm peddles as long as it is "suitable" based on your objectives and risk tolerance. The difference is like night and day.

As a result of the court’s ruling, brokers now have to move clients back to traditional commission-driven brokerage accounts or into advisory accounts. If you end up back in a traditional brokerage account, do not be surprised if trading activity in your account suddenly picks up. Traditional brokerage accounts are, and always will be prone to, churning from overzealous fee-hungry brokers. The alternative to the traditional brokerage account is an advisory account. When offered by brokers, advisory accounts are not much better than traditional brokerage accounts. Expenses are high, and the accounts are riddled with conflicts of interest.

I have long advised consolidating all your accounts at Vanguard or Fidelity. You can buy stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds without the high-pressure sales tactics and bloated commission rates of full-service brokers. If you still have an account open with a full-service broker, now is the time to consolidate. If you are looking for advisory services, you want a registered investment advisory firm charging less than 1% and offering management across a broad spectrum of securities including individual stocks. And do not fall for an advisory firm that outsources its equity management to a separate account manager. The benefits are oversold, and the expenses are often high. You want a manager with the capabilities to manage your equity portfolio in-house.

Anglo American

Last month I added Anglo American (OTC: AAUK) to my Monster Master List. Anglo American is one of the world’s largest mining companies with interests in gold, platinum, diamonds, coal, base metals, industrial minerals, iron ore, and paper and packaging. Anglo’s big profit generators are the platinum business and the base metals business. Anglo is the world’s largest platinum producer with a market share of more than 33%. Unlike gold, platinum does not suffer from an overhang of supply in central bank vaults.

Anglo shares have lagged the likes of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) over recent years, but a restructuring plan that is now well under way and a new American CEO who spent time at Alcan (NYSE: AL) and Amoco are helping Anglo gain traction with investors. The company is spinning off divisions and selling noncore assets to increase shareholder value. Buy.

Volatility Is Your Nemesis

For investors who are either retired or relying on their portfolio for income, I advise a minimum of 50% in fixed-income securities. Your fixed-income component should be focused on no-load, low-expense-ratio bond funds, high-quality, high-yielding preferred securities, and full-faith-and-credit-pledge U.S. Treasuries. Limit your equities component to dividend-paying stocks. When you craft a retirement income-strategy, risk, not return, should be your primary concern.

If you are a retired investor drawing income from your investments, a low-risk, low-return portfolio is preferable to a high-risk, high-return portfolio. That’s right; I am telling you to shoot for a low return. In fact, a 7% return with minimal volatility is preferable to a 10% return with lots of volatility. In a high-risk portfolio, a series of negative returns combined with steady and growing annual distributions can decimate a portfolio, leaving it incapable of meeting your income needs. Let’s look at a hypothetical example. My return chart shows a hypothetical series of returns for an all-stock portfolio. The compounded average annual return of this hypothetical portfolio is 10.6%, and the standard deviation is 18.5%–not much different from the risk and return of U.S. stocks over the last 25 years, helped of course by the not-to-be-repeated secular decline in interest rates.

If you retired today with $1 million and invested the entire balance in our hypothetical portfolio with the intention of taking an inflation-adjusted $40,000 in income for 35 years, you would be unpleasantly surprised to learn that you would run out of money prematurely. Shouldn’t a 10.6% return allow you to draw 4%, offset inflation of 3%, and grow your principal? Not exactly! Right off the bat, three years of negative returns cripple the portfolio. By year four, your portfolio would be down 48% due to price declines and annual withdrawals. Just to cover your annual income requirement in year four, your portfolio would have to earn 8.3%. The now-high withdrawal rate would overwhelm your portfolio and eventually deplete your entire principal balance. If instead you invested all your money in a portfolio that offers 7% each and every year, your income needs would be met, and your principal would be intact in inflation-adjusted terms. Volatility is the nemesis of income-oriented investors. A balanced approach focused on dividend and income-paying securities is an optimal retirement income-strategy. Do not fall into the trap of investing in a high-risk, potentially high-return portfolio during retirement. The consequences are irreversible once the damage is done.

A 9.8% Yield

Add the new ING Group preferred issue (no symbol yet), rated A1/A, to your fixed-income component. When priced, the issue should yield between 7.375% and 7.5% depending on initial demand. Dividends on the ING issue are considered qualified dividend income and eligible for the reduced 15% dividend tax rate. Assuming the issue prices at 7.5%, the tax-equivalent yield for an investor in the highest income tax bracket is 9.8%. You have to dip deep down into junk ratings to get a bond yielding anywhere near 9.8%.

Tax Revenues

The high tax-equivalent yield on the new ING issue is, of course, possible because of the Bush tax cuts. With the primaries for the 2008 election heating up, the tax policies of all candidates should be a primary consideration of all investors. The leading contenders on the left want to roll back the Bush tax cuts, thereby raising taxes on retired investors who draw income from their portfolios, and high-income earners who are responsible for much of the job creation in the U.S. The left will have you believe that higher taxes on high-income earners will increase federal revenues that can be used to fund social programs. Do not fall for this rhetoric. My chart shows 60 years’ worth of proof that higher tax rates do not result in a sustainable increase in federal personal tax revenues. Federal personal tax revenues have averaged 8% of GDP for the past 60 years. During this period, marginal rates have been as high as 90% and as low as 28%. Today the highest marginal tax rate is 35%, and revenues as a percent of GDP are above average. Higher tax rates will not result in a sustainable increase in federal revenues. Raising marginal rates is simply about taking money from those who have it and redistributing it to the, shall we say, less motivated.

Covered Calls Safety

BlackRock Enhanced Dividend Achievers Trust (BDJ) and BlackRock Global Opportunities Equity Trust (BOE) continue to look attractive for income-oriented investors. Both funds trade at a discount to net asset value and yield 9.1% (BDJ) and 8.2% (BOE). The high yields are enabled by writing call options.

A call option on a stock gives the buyer the right to buy 100 shares of the stock at a pre-determined price (the strike price), for a predetermined period of time (expiration date). The maximum upside on a purchased call is infinite, while the maximum downside is the cost of the option. When an investor writes a call (the opposite of buying a call), he has the obligation to deliver 100 shares of a stock at a predetermined price for a predetermined period of time. The maximum gain on a written call is the price of the call, while the maximum loss is infinite. A fixed upside and unlimited downside is not a particularly attractive risk-reward scenario.

The BlackRock funds, of course, do not write calls with unlimited downside. BlackRock only writes covered calls. A covered call strategy involves writing a call option on a stock that is already owned. In a covered call strategy, the risk of loss on the option is exactly zero. If the stock increases above the strike price of the call he wrote, the investor simply delivers his shares of stock to the call buyer. The investor gives up some upside on the stock position in return for risk-free option income. Got it? If not, don’t sweat it. A covered call strategy is a good way to increase income and reduce volatility—two desirable attributes for income-oriented investors.

Top 10 Common Stock Countdown

(1) Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO): A new imperative by Coke’s CEO E. Neville Isdell should please the green crowd. Coke has pledged to recycle 100% of its plastic bottling and much of its cardboard. This recycling effort centers on a new $60-million plant that will recycle enough plastic each year for around two billion 20-ounce bottles. Is Coke going green? Doubtful. Coke’s raw materials and packaging costs rose over 22% in the last quarter. This is a cost-cutting maneuver elegantly disguised as a go-green campaign. What does Coke do with the recycled materials? They turn them into T-shirts and jewelry and hawk them on the Internet. This redefines the phrase "cheap plastic crap." You have to admire the creativity. My price chart shows a powerful upward breakout for Coca-Cola. Buy.

(2) Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL): 8,217,000 is the number of acres owned by Plum Creek. Most of the company’s land is populated with Plum Creek’s genetically enhanced seedlings or good, old-fashioned, old-growth forest. Plum Creek harvests trees and grows more in their place. My price chart shows that Plum Creek has broken through resistance around $43. Buy.

(3) W.M. Wrigley (NYSE: WWY): Three of Wrigley’s brands have recently gained the approval of the American Dental Association. Sugarless Orbit, Extra, and Eclipse gums have been proven to help fight cavities and plaque. That is a mighty coup for a company that brought us Hubba Bubba and Big League Chew. My long-term-trend chart shows Wrigley trading below trend. Buy.

(4) United Technologies (NYSE: UTX): What goes up must come down. UTX’s new Gen2 elevators have regenerative drives that recycle energy upon descent. These elevators use 75% less energy than their traditional counterparts. UTX’s Gen2 elevator will be an integral part of the world’s tallest tower, the Burj Dubai, a 2,290-foot tower in Dubai, scheduled to open in 2008. At 160 stories, using the stairs is not an option in the Burj Dubai. My relative-strength chart on UTX shows consistent power versus the S&P 500. Buy.

(5) General Electric (NYSE: GE): GE is taking advantage of the world’s infrastructure boom. The 2008 Beijing Olympics will not just be a show of China’s new wealth, but will also showcase the talents of GE. GE has helped transform Beijing from a backward second-rate capital city into a world-class destination fit to host the Olympics. From security and power to clean water and transportation, GE has been instrumental to the preparation of Beijing. The Olympics will be an advertisement for GE’s world-class infrastructure and construction capabilities. GE is also hoping that its success with the Olympics will make it the choice for further Chinese infrastructure developments for the Asian Games and the Shanghai World Expo in 2010. The two events have planned budgets of around $30 billion and $50 billion respectively. GE is trading far below trend. Buy now.

(6) Diageo (NYSE: DEO): Diageo’s Goldschlager is not only good consolation in times of market volatility, it is also an inflation hedge. Goldschlager Cinnamon Schnapps, with 23-carat gold flakes inside, is the only drink to stave off depression and inflation in the same bottle. There is only $1.50 worth of gold in each bottle, but if you are a heavy drinker, you will have enough to cast gold bars in no time. If you are not a fan of Cinnamon Schnapps, Diageo sells Smirnoff, Jose Cuervo, Johnnie Walker, Bailey’s, Captain Morgan, and Tanqueray, to name a few. If liquor is not your passion, Diageo can offer you a beer. Brands include Guinness, Harp, and Red Stripe. Do you prefer champagne or wine? Well, Diageo has you covered. The company sells Dom Pérignon, Moet, and nine brands of wine including BV Coastal and Sterling Vineyards. My price chart for Diageo indicates alcohol consumption is on the rise. Buy.

(7) PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP): Pepsi is changing the label on their Aquafina brand bottled water to read: "The Aquafina in this bottle is purified water that originates from a public water source." The bottle should really say: "Ha, ha sucker! You just paid $1.55 for 20 ounces of tap water you could have gotten for less than a penny from your faucet. And it would probably taste better than the metallic water we push." The marketing department at Pepsi is genius. My price chart for Pepsi shows a consistent upward march. Buy.

(8) Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU): The U.S. has the world’s largest reserves of coal. We have enough coal, at current rates of demand, to power the country for 300 years. New processes like gasification and clean-coal technology will increase the value and use of coal markedly. You can gain exposure to coal through Peabody. Peabody is the world’s largest coal producer with major assets in the U.S. and Australia. Peabody’s Australian coal assets are ideally located to benefit from growing Chinese demand. A major crackdown on small-scale, accident-prone mines has curbed production growth in China. For the first time, in the first quarter of 2007, China imported more coal than it exported. My rate-of-change chart for Peabody shows the stock’s growth-rate increasing. Buy.

(9) Unilever (NYSE: UL): Unilever has been aggressively returning value to shareholders. In 2007 Young Research estimates that UL will return almost $2 billion to shareholders in the form of share buybacks. Coupled with a 3.96% yield, UL will return more than $4 billion or nearly 8% of the current market cap. My relative-strength chart for Unilever shows upward strength against the S&P. Buy

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(10) Rayonier (NYSE: RYN): First and foremost Rayonier is a timber company—lots of land, lots of trees. But RYN has done well to diversify away from pure lumber (i.e., the housing market). Performance Fibers is RYN’s business segment for timber derivatives that are put in filters, paint, absorbers (like diapers), rayon, and even sausage casings. My relative-strength chart shows RYN bouncing off a solid base versus the S&P. Buy.

Super Income Generator

My chart on the CBOE buy-write index compares the performance of a covered call strategy on the S&P 500 with the performance of the S&P 500. The covered call strategy offers the same return with much less volatility. The income generated from writing calls helps cushion returns during market declines. I have advised in the past to hold BDJ and BOE in a tax-deferred account. Covered call strategies like those employed in the BlackRock funds are not tax-efficient. Essentially what you are doing with a covered call strategy is substituting call income for future capital gains. Income from call options is taxed at your ordinary income rate, whereas capital gains are taxed at a 15% rate. Add to your positions in BDJ and BOE.

Brand New This Month

Starting this month at both my Common Stock and ETF and Mutual Fund Monster Master Lists will be updated each month. I will continue to inform you of any changes to both lists inside the Intelligence Report, but to access the most up-to-date versions, you will want to check the site. If you have not yet set up an online account–and I know many of you have not—do so today to stay informed. This month I am adding Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) and Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE: CP) to my Monster Master List—I’ll have more details on the company for you next month.

My three relative strength charts show price action for my favorite company, Harley-Davidson, and two least favorites, Wal-Mart and Microsoft. Own none of the three at current prices. Go to www.youngresearch.com for my 1992 to 2007 buy/sell history on Harley. We just returned from riding our Harleys from Goode, Virginia, to Newport, Rhode Island, via Dorset, Vermont. Along the way we checked with a dealer on what he would offer for our Hogs in trade for new 2008s. We were offered what might as well have been scrap metal prices. Needless to say, no 2008s. Gangs of Hog riders, if not already horrified, soon will be at the collapse of the used Hog market due to Harley management’s overproduction. As for Microsoft, Windows Vista is a dog-like behemoth. One primary reason is Microsoft’s continued insistence on making its current operating system backwards compatible to allow earlier operating system versions to work on newer ones. Beats me why there isn’t a tidal wave of home computer users switching to Mac. Chevalier Harry D. Schultz refers to Microsoft as "the worst successful company in the history of business."

What’s Up & What’s Down

The economy has mostly shaken off the sub-prime-induced credit crunch that peaked in the summer. Stocks began to rebound even before the Fed cut rates, but Bernanke’s 50-basis-point surprise set off a rally in stocks that has pushed the Dow to within 1% of its all-time high reached in July. Growth stocks are outperforming value stocks with a 12.3% year-to-date return in Vanguard Growth Index versus a 6.7% year-to-date return in Vanguard Value Index (VIVAX), but the Dow Diamonds Trust (DIA) is up 13%, topping both Value and Growth. Blue chips are benefiting from a flight to quality, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a tightening of credit markets. The average stock is having a difficult year with the Value Line Index up only 3.2% year-to-date. If you have invested along with me, your portfolio has performed much better than the average stock. Four of my international funds are up over 30%. You are up over 90% in iShares Singapore (EWS) in less than two years. The sole laggard in the international space is T. Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) with a modest decline. Japanese stocks remain cheap–be patient here. Yet again, my natural resources funds are having a stellar year. All of my funds except for American Century Global Gold (BGEIX) are up double digits. Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining (VGPMX) is up 247% in less than three years. Vanguard has reopened the fund to flagship clients. If you are a Vanguard Flagship client without a position in Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining, open a position before Vanguard changes its mind.

I’ve added Fidelity Natural Gas (FSNGX) to What’s Up. As I wrote earlier in the issue, this month I’ve taken a significant position in this specialized Fidelity fund for my own account. The stated goal of the U.S. ought to be to eliminate the need for any foreign oil. Think of the positive geo-political implications, never mind the elimination of energy from non-friendly countries. There’s no doubt that domestically produced oil, gas, and coal will all be certain long-term energy beneficiaries. You will note that all of my balanced or fixed-income listings are up YTD. In the current environment, I’d turn first to Vanguard GNMA (VFIIX) and Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) on the fixed side. And when you add strictly investment-grade high-yielding preferreds and short- and intermediate-term full-faith-and-credit Treasury securities, you will be well set with 50% of your preretirement or retirement portfolio. No way would I want a retirement portfolio to be less than 50% fixed income. Remember my tale of the investor who retired in 1964 with a 100% stock portfolio? Over the next 16 years, the stock market declined with the Dow down 10% at year-end 1981. A solid mix of short and intermediate fixed-income and precious metals was required to survive

Here & There

The U.S. dollar at $1.4147 is at an all-time record low versus the euro. The dollar is down 10% YTD even versus Colombia’s peso. About the only foreign currency that the U.S. dollar has gained on is the Argentine peso, where the dollar is up 3%. No kidding here, off to Buenos Aires. Gold at over $732/oz is at a 27-year high. Platinum futures have skyrocketed. Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining (VGPMX) is now up over 30% YTD. A $50,000 investment at yearend 2004 would today stand you over $124,000. Look at your precious metals holdings as a hedge against all fiat currencies, especially the U.S. dollar. Maintain modest positions. Add regularly, especially during periods of distress in the precious metal markets. Pray that the price of precious metals declines. Everything else you own will rise. When precious metals are on a roll, you will thank your lucky stars that you are on the train. I have taken a big position in Fidelity’s Select Natural Gas (FSNGX). I suggest the same for you. Chart #37 shows how cheap gas is. I’m glad I added T. Rowe Price New Asia (PRASX) back to the Monster Master List. YTD it is up over 53%. YTD the ultraconservative Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (VWINX) is up 5% versus a gain of 4.4% for the widely hyped Legg Mason Value Trust. I will soon boost my position in Wellesley, as should you. RIP to legendary jazz drummer Max Roach, Weather Report founder Joe Zawinul, and Olympic discus great Al Oerter. Make it a good month.

Warm regards,

Richard C. Young

P.S. European lending standards remain conservative, even a little old-fashioned. I like Fidelity International Real Estate (FIREX) for both of us. Rents in London are 60% higher than in New York, 130% higher than in Tokyo, and nearly five times the level in Zurich. The U.S. dollar will not go far for you in New Zealand, where a Big Mac will run you $5.90 versus $3.40 in the U.S. Instead, head to two stops on our own travel shopping list: Argentina, where you will pay only $2.70, and, better yet, Thailand, where you will pay only $1.80.

P.P.S. Presidential contenders would be wise to note that the two most competitive economies in the world, Hong Kong and Singapore, have max individual tax rates of 15% and 20% versus a much-too-high 35% in the U.S. and a noncompetitive 45% in Germany. Socialized Sweden’s new Prime Minister conservative Fredrick Reinfeldt got through a big income tax cut and slashed unemployment benefits. Unions are screaming.

P.P.P.S. Go to www.youngresearch.com for some great new essential music stuff and info on Young Research’s brand-new strategy report. And go to cahootsgraffix.com for great Summer of Love (1967) memorabilia.

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