September 2007 Issue

September 1, 2007
By Richard C. Young

Bozzing…

What a concert. I have never seen a group of attendees so in touch with an artist. The Hyannis Melody Tent was Bozzing. Boz Scaggs is a legend, at least to me. From his early days with the Steve Miller Band in the late 1960s, Boz has stood out from the crowd. Boz is part of a select group of "connoisseur musicians" that includes jazz greats Red Garland, Hank Mobley, Bernard Purdie, and Ron Carter. All are mellow and prolific–grand masters of my Simple is Sophisticated dogma. Yet all remain beyond the orbit of the masses. Unlike so many musicians who get over-produced on recordings, these five always have epitomized the stripped-down, elegant approach.

Simple is Sophisticated

Since I began in the investment business in the early 1960s, I have practiced the Simple is Sophisticated approach to investing. In my monthly letters to you, my focal point has always been on dividends and interest (cash in hand). Not long after I started in the investment business in Boston, the stock market began a protracted dive that would end in 1981 with the Dow actually down 10% over a 16-year period (1965 through 1981). How would you like to have retired in 1965 with a 100% stock portfolio mostly in aggressive non-dividend-paying stocks? You would have been back at work, with no doubt a greatly inferior slot, faster than I can say Boz Scaggs. What a tragic disaster for such a sorry soul, not to mention the sorry soul’s spouse. If you are retired or set to retire in the next five or 10 years, my little historical note may make you inclined to focus laser-like on the reality of dividends and interest. The two most powerful action words in investing are, of course, compound interest. And to best harness the awesome power of compound interest, you need some high-octane dividends and interest fuel. As Warren Buffett’s longtime partner Charlie Munger once said, "Understanding the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things."

Fortress-Like Protection

As the month of July was coming to a close, the Dow fell by over 300 points in one day. Momentum sellers dumped so much stock that the NYSE traded, for the first time ever, over 5 billion shares. At our family investment firm (YoungInvestments.com), we advise a portfolio mix of 50% dividend-paying stocks and 50% high-grade fixed income (shorter-term maturities). On a day like the above, this fortress-like portfolio mix allows the prudent and astute investor to not only sleep well but perhaps even gloat a little.

Defense Armor

A balanced investor will find comfort and consistency with a portfolio generating a 4% yield from dividends and interest. I write often that a 4% draw from your initial portfolio value is the max with which I am comfortable in retirement (Charts #53 and #54). And Chart #51 offers soothing perspective on the defensive armor of investment-grade, shorter-maturity fixed income.

Ideal in Retirement

Young Research’s in-house Retirement Compounders portfolio has a current yield of 3.5%. Each stock pays a dividend. The current SEC yield on Vanguard GNMA is about 5.2%, and the average yield on our investment-grade preferreds is about 6.5%. As you can easily calculate, a 50/50 mix would provide a total portfolio yield of between 4% and 5%, which is ideal as a retirement cornerstone.

In the first half of 2007, the 2,000 globally diversified hedge funds, tracked by Greenwich Investable Hedge Fund Index, were reportedly up 6.3%. By comparison, over the same period, Young Research’s conservative, non-leveraged, dividend-based portfolio was up 8%. There is just so much to avoid beyond hedge funds, including annuities, load mutual funds, and investment advisors with 1% and above fee structures. Stick with a Simple is Sophisticated dividend–and interest-based investment program. You will sleep well and achieve consistent and pleasing long-term returns.

Given the Dow’s currently higher-than-average P/E and much-lower-than-average 2% yield, a total annual return of approximately 7.5% is a good benchmark. YTD, the Dow’s total return is about 8.5%, making it less than prudent to count on too much in the second half of 2007.

Here is exactly what I’m doing today with my own money. I’m buying (1) Dodge & Cox International, (2) Vanguard Wellesley Income, (3) Dodge & Cox Income, (4) Fidelity Canada, (5) T. Rowe Price Japan Fund, and (6) iShares Singapore. All are advised for you. As you know, I do not make a major investment without writing to you. I believe my full disclosure policy is unique to the industry. I cannot make money, of course, unless you make money. We are in the same boat.

Fixed Income

For all but the most aggressive investors, I advise a mix of fixed income. Fixed income helps smooth out portfolio returns and tame the emotionalism that leads most investors to make rash decisions. If you get the urge to sell at the first sign of market volatility, it is time to boost up your fixed-income component. Your comfort level is directly related to your long-term investment success. Uncomfortable investors often make emotionally charged investment decisions that lead to poor long-term returns.

Many investors lack an adequate fixed-income component because they perceive the asset class to be stodgy and boring. If you are in this camp, I want you to listen up. You can make double-digit returns in full-faith-and-credit-pledge U.S. Treasury zero coupon bonds.

High-Octane Zeros

Let me show you the potential in zeros. If you buy a $10,000 face-value 25-year zero today, with interest rates at 5%, you will pay around $2,910. If interest rates are 1% lower at this time next year, your bond will be worth $3,870–a one-year return of 33%. If interest rates are 1% lower in three years, your bond will be worth $4,190–a compounded annual return of 12.9%. Stodgy and boring? Not quite.

No Buy Signal Yet

The current interest-rate environment does not favor an aggressive posture with zeros. My guide to zeros is the Young Research Valuation Indicator. My chart shows the Young Research Valuation Indicator versus the 10-year Treasury yield. Buy signals are indicated when the YRPI valuation indicator spikes. When my valuation indicator spikes, rates are likely to fall over the next 12 months. Today my valuation indicator is in neutral territory, so I advise you to keep your maturities under five years.

The Young Research Valuation indicator is included in my Economic Analysis supplement as Chart #19 each month. Check this chart regularly to gauge when a change in strategy is coming.

Today for fixed income, I favor no-load, ultra-low expense ratio, short-duration bond funds and A-rated or better high-yielding preferreds.

Vanguard the Champ

Vanguard is the leader in ultra-cheap, investor-friendly bond funds. I want you to add to your positions in Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade and Vanguard GNMA. Both funds charge an ultra-low 0.21% expense ratio for investor shares. If you have more than $100,000 to invest in each fund, you will pay only 0.10%.

The Committee

I also like Dodge & Cox Income on the bond-fund side. DODIX focuses on domestic investment-grade bonds. The fund invests in corporate bonds, treasuries, agencies, and even high-yield bonds when the risk-reward ratio is attractive. I love DODIX’s conservative, research-intensive approach. When new debt offerings come to market, bond fund managers are only given a day or two to decide if they want to purchase them. Access to in-depth, quality research from equity analysts at D&C prepares the fixed-income team to make well-informed decisions on new debt offerings. If you do not own a position in DODIX, I want you to initiate one today. I would not be at all surprised if the fund closes to new investors.

Blue-Chip Preferreds

For income-oriented investors, high-yielding, blue-chip preferreds are my number-one choice. I want you to stay with A-rated or better preferreds. If you own any preferreds rated lower than BBB+ you will want to seriously consider upgrading to higher-quality issues. When the credit cycle turns, issues rated lower than BBB+ are more likely to go into default than issues rated above A. One or two defaults can kill an entire preferreds portfolio. Three high-quality recently issued preferreds that I like for you are: Deutsche Bank (no symbol yet), 6.625%, rated A3/A; JP Morgan (no symbol yet), 6.875%, rated Aa3/A-; and ING (NYSE: ISF), 6.375%, rated A1/A.

Danger Ahead

Early signs are emerging that the credit cycle is turning. High-yield offerings are being cancelled, and spreads are widening. Turn to Chart 23 in my Economic Analysis. Spreads have increased by 1.7% since bottoming in June. My chart on the Merrill Lynch High Yield Index shows that, as spreads widen, returns plummet.

The Super Bid

After putting up strong resistance to a generous $28 billion offer from Alcoa (NYSE: AA), Alcan (NYSE: AL) found a more palatable suitor in Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP). Rio Tinto’s $38 billion bid represents a premium of 35% to the Alcoa bid and a 66% premium to the price of Alcan shares before the Alcoa offer. Rio’s premium bid is unlikely to be topped. If the deal goes through, the new company would be named Rio Tinto Alcan. Rio would become the world’s largest mining company, controlling 11% of the world’s aluminum supply and 14% of global bauxite reserves.

Alcoa withdrew its bid for Alcan after the Rio Tinto acquisition was announced. Alcoa now seems vulnerable to a takeover from one of the global mining powerhouses. The miners most likely to launch a bid are BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), AngloAmerican, or Xstrata (LONDON: XTA.L). I continue to recommend Alcoa and Rio Tinto, and I want you to hold your Alcan shares. You have earned 114.2% on Alcan over the last 12 months.

Agricultural Commodities

I want you to sell your position in PowerShares DB Agricultural Commodities Fund (DBA). DBA invests 25% in corn futures, 25% in wheat futures, 25% in sugar futures, and 25% in soybean futures. The fund now appears vulnerable to a drop in wheat and further weakness in corn. My chart on wheat shows the commodity trading far above the two standard deviations marker. A decline over coming months is likely. Chart 38 in my Economic Analysis on corn has a real toppy look. Exit your position in DBA today. Keep your shares of Cresud (NASDAQ: CRESY), Alico (NASDAQ: ALCO), and Syngenta (NYSE: SYT). Add to all three on weakness.

Bogus Withdrawal Rate

As the first wave of baby boomers begins to exit the workforce in 2008, retirement income strategies will come into clear focus. The thought of crafting an investment strategy to sustain an income for decades into the future is complex and frightening for most investors. The emotionalism of managing money in retirement is difficult to comprehend for investors who still have the safety net of a regular paycheck.

I want you to take a hard look at your financial situation before you decide to retire. If you retire without proper preparation and a well-planned investment strategy, you are likely to fall prey to the unscrupulous, asset-gathering investment advisors who tell you what you want to hear to win your business. Some registered investment advisors actually advise a 7% to 8% withdrawal rate! Do not fall for this. Advisors who say you can draw 7% of your portfolio and maintain an income for more than a few years are betting against you. Most likely they are hoping you will expire early or move on to another advisor before your portfolio is depleted.

My long-time maximum recommended withdrawal rate for you is 4%. The mathematics of retirement income show that a proper balance of fixed-income and equity investments is highly likely to sustain a 4% withdrawal rate for a 35-year retirement. If you want to keep your principal intact, lower your withdrawal rate to 3% for maximum comfort. I’ll have more details for you on retirement income strategies as my Big Idea approaches.

Top 10 Common Stock Countdown

(1) Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): A&B started as a 12-acre sugar plantation in Hawaii in 1870. From those humble beginnings, Alexander & Baldwin has expanded to become Hawaii’s largest sugar producer, a real estate developer, and a leading ocean transportation company. Matson Navigation, the company’s ocean transport business, introduced containerized shipping to the Pacific, and now offers direct shipping from the West Coast to Hawaii and China. Direct routes like Matson’s route to China are becoming more important as globalization expands trade and demands faster shipping worldwide. Matson, one of the principal shippers across the Pacific, has a fleet of 17 ships serving Hawaii, the West Coast, China, Guam, and a host of South Pacific islands. A&B’s price has now broken out above $55 per share. Buy.

(2) Coca-Cola (KO): Coke’s old-line board has finally woken up to the realities of the U.S. carbonated soft drink business. American beverage preferences are shifting toward non-carbonated healthier alternatives. Pepsi long ago moved heavily into non-carbonated drinks. Coke stubbornly resisted a shift to non-carbonated alternatives and is now playing catch-up to Pepsi’s market leading position. Coke’s recent acquisition of Glaceau, maker of VitaminWater, is a step toward improving results. A reinvigorated U.S. business and strong growth internationally are driving Coke shares higher. Buy.

(3) Federated Investors (FII): The coming wave of 76 million baby-boom retirees will be a boon to FII’s leading fixed-income business. The shares are undervalued versus those of its peers, and the company is an attractive takeover target. If Federated’s shares remain this cheap for much longer, look for management to take the company private. The stock has reversed its relative downtrend in momentum versus the S&P 500. Buy.

(4) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): JNJ is another play on the aging of the baby-boom generation. JNJ is the one-stock wonder of the healthcare industry. The company owns a leading pharmaceutical business, a leading medical supply business, and a leading consumer products business. The company’s diversified approach is a refreshing alternative to the narrow focus of most healthcare companies. The reliable cash flow from JNJ’s consumer products business acts as a safety net for the company when the pharmaceutical division is having trouble. JNJ is flat on its back versus the S&P 500 and offers a 2.7% dividend yield.

(5) PepsiCo (PEP): With snacks and beverages doing well around the world, Pepsi’s share price has tractor-like pulling power. CEO Indra Nooyi is the right person to continue the growth of the brand overseas and to make gains in the growing non-carbonated market in the U.S. Purchases like recently acquired Naked Juices give Pepsi a larger foothold in the non-carbonated market and provide a healthier portfolio of drinks for a broader range of increasingly health-conscious, anti-fizz customers. Buy.

(6) Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY): If asked to sum up Piedmont in one word, I’d say "stability." Piedmont has increased its dividends every year for the last 27 years. And over the last 10 years, those dividends have compounded annually at 5.2%. Reliable dividend growth plus a nice 3.8% yield equals comfort for retired income-seeking investors. Piedmont has started injecting natural gas into storage during the summer to be used for winter heating. Hardy storage will allow Piedmont to buy gas at opportune times and save it for later. Buy Piedmont Natural Gas now at trend-line lows.

(7) Plum Creek Timber (PCL): Ya gotta love selling trees. You plant them; they grow. You cut them, plant more, and they grow again. Neglect to cut them and their value increases even more. Trees appreciate and renew like any other crop. And, underneath all of Plum Creek’s timber lie hundreds of thousands of acres of land that can be developed as high-value residential and commercial property. Plum Creek has a tax-advantaged 4.3% yield, and my chart shows a nice breakout.

(8) T. Rowe Price (TROW): T. Rowe Price is one of the only independent mutual fund groups worth a hoot. I have owned and advised T. Rowe funds for almost four decades. I purchased T. Rowe Price New Era in the early ’70s, and I still hold the fund today. T. Rowe Price’s target-date retirement funds are booming. Of $4.5 billion in mutual fund inflows in the second quarter, more than 50% went into the company’s target-date retirement funds. Target-date funds are a one-size-fits-all approach to investing that I do not endorse. Demographic trends in the U.S. point to continued growth in T. Rowe Price’s target-date retirement funds business. T. Rowe Price versus the S&P 500 is a picture of absolute power.

(9) Tiffany & Co. (TIF): The name "Tiffany" brings to mind diamonds, crystal, and elegance. Tiffany’s world-renowned status as a luxury brand plays into my "Luxury Goods Super-cycle" (LGS) theme. The LGS is booming in Asia as the nouveau riche show off their newly minted affluence with high-end jewelry. The tradition of the extravagant engagement ring is catching on in Asia with an emphasis on platinum as the metal of choice. And do not forget about Tiffany’s Japanese business. Tiffany already has a big presence in Japan and should benefit as the country’s economy kicks into gear. My price chart on Tiffany shows a powerful Luxury Goods Super-cycle-induced price surge.

(10) Wrigley (WWY): Founded in 1891, Wrigley is the world’s leading manufacturer and marketer of chewing gum. Wrigley’s simple-is-sophisticated business is both durable and profitable. The stock has been listed on the NYSE since 1923. Wrigley has paid a dividend every year since 1913 and increased the dividend every year for the past 26 years. I also view WWY as a takeover target in the consolidating confectionery industry. It has strong upside relative momentum versus the S&P. Buy.

GE—World-Class

GE’s infrastructure business and exposure to emerging markets is leading a resurgence in the company’s shares. My chart on GE shows a powerful upside breakout in the stock. GE’s second-quarter financial report showed revenue growth of 12%, driven by a 23% increase in infrastructure revenue. A 12% revenue growth rate for a behemoth like GE is remarkable. New capacity in emerging markets and a replacement and upgrade cycle in developed countries is driving demand for GE’s infrastructure products and services. GE shares offer exposure to booming emerging markets without all of the political, economic, and corruption risk associated with a direct investment in these markets. The stock yields a market-beating 2.8%. Add to your position in GE.

Windows Vista—No Thanks

Along with Junk-Mart (a.k.a. Wal-Mart), Microsoft has been a serial underperformer over the last decade. Check out my relative strength chart on Microsoft. Pitiful. Microsoft’s new operating system, Windows Vista, is a disaster. Young Research’s Director of Research, Jeremy Jones, writes a little something about his experience with the new Windows operating system:

"A couple of months ago, I decided to buy a new laptop. I went to www.Dell.com and configured what I thought was a pretty good system. I upgraded the hard drive and processor from the standard selections and requested 2 GB of memory. The computer arrived loaded with Windows Vista. After I booted up the computer, cleaned up all the junk programs that Dell pre-loads, and configured the operating system for optimal performance, I was severely disappointed. Windows Vista is a clumsy graphic-intensive memory hog. The system was so slow that I sent it back to Dell and demanded a refund. The Dell customer service representative I spoke to told me many customers are calling with similar complaints about Windows Vista. After Dell processed my refund, I went to my local Apple store and bought my first Macintosh. I wish I would have made the change sooner. My new Mac laptop has half the memory of the Dell I returned and runs much faster. My recommendation to you is to avoid Windows Vista and stay far away from Microsoft shares. Try out a Mac–you might be surprised how much you like it. I was."

Go Private

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG), my favorite company, just reported big jumps in second-quarter revenue and net income. Hog shipped 3,576 more units YTD to dealers worldwide than in the same half of 2006. But wait. Worldwide, Harley dealers actually sold 1.27% fewer Hogs YTD than last year. CEO Jim Ziemer, looking to put the best face forward, chose to round the number down to 1.2% in his press release. Remember J.Z., today’s Hog is tomorrow’s bacon. Moreover, domestic dealers sold 8,759, or 5.69%, fewer Hogs YTD than in 2006. Retail sales YTD were up sharply in Canada and Europe due to, in my opinion, the weak U.S. dollar. My "Essence of the Issue" charts track Harley’s underlying course. Note the substantial deceleration. Harley continues pandering to Wall Street while compromising H-D dealers with excessive inventories and Hog customers with falling used-bike prices and backed-up, rushed, and often surly service. I would like to see Hog put a lid on production and be more helpful to its dealers and loyal customers. And I wouldn’t mind a return to private market status. I’m on the sidelines awaiting a re-buy.

What’s Up & What’s Down

July started out as an unusually strong month for stocks, but ended with a sharp sell-off. Credit market woes caused investors to shift out of risky investments and into safer investments. The flight to quality is evident when you compare the 11.9% year-to-date return in the Dow to the 6.9% return in the Value Line Composite Index. The Value Line Composite Index measures the performance of the average stock, while the Dow measures the performance of large diversified multinationals. Investors perceive Dow stocks as high-quality, safer-than-average equities.

Even with a sharp drop in July, 2007 is still shaping up to be a good year for stocks. The Dow is still up more than 10% and all the international funds that I recommend, with the exception of Japan, are up double digits. Australia is up 28.1%, Singapore is up 26%, and the more conservative Dodge & Cox International is up 13.3%. The only weak spot year-to-date is in real estate. Vanguard REIT is down 10.2% so far this year, but my highly favored Fidelity International Real Estate and Third Avenue Real Estate have held up better with declines of 2.1% and 1.2%, respectively.

I recently made six investments for my own portfolio. As usual, each is carried for you in What’s Up. I rarely look beyond this list for my own account, and, aside from individual stocks and preferreds, you have no reason to look afield. And just as you can get your shopping list for mutual funds and ETFs in What’s Up, you also can turn to my Top 10 Countdown for your most timely stock purchases each month. I do not select a name for the Top 10 unless we are solid on a given stock’s fundamentals as well as its technical picture. Young Research now spends over $40,000/year just for the databases to support our research on your behalf. I doubt that you can find a comparable research product without paying a gang of money. Looking forward, I think Japan and the yen offer investors immense opportunity. Fixed income, including longer STRIPS and inflation-protected securities, will have another very bright day in the sun. With 76 million baby boomers starting to retire mid year in my 2008 Big Year, there will be a rush to fixed income, and the best funds, like Dodge & Cox Income, will no doubt close. Open your accounts without delay.

  
2005
% Change
2006
% Change
2007 YTD
% Change
Dow Jones 30 Ind. 1.7 19 11.9
Dow Jones 15 Ut. 25.1 16.6 10.7
Dow Jones Trans. 11.6 9.8 15.4
S&P 500 Index 4.3 15.1 7.8
NASDAQ Comp.      2.2 10.3 10
Value Line 2 11 6.9
Dodge & Cox Bal. 6.6 13.9 5.7
Vanguard Bal. Index 4.7 11 5.5
Wellesley Income 3.5 11.3 3.5
Wellington 6.8 15 7.3
Dow Diamonds Trust, Series 1 2.5 18.9 11.7
Mutual Shares (Z-Shares) 10.4 18.4 8.1
Vanguard 500 Index  4.8 15.6 8
Vanguard Growth Index 5.1 9 10.2
Vanguard Value Index 7.1 22.2 6.7
Vanguard Equity Income 4.4 20.6 7.1
Third Ave. Value 16.5 14.7 9.1
Third Avenue Small-Cap Value 11.1 11.4 6.7
Dodge & Cox International 16.8 28 13.3
Fidelity Canada Fund 27.9 15 25
iShares Australia 16.7 30.8 28.1
iShares Hong Kong 7.3 29.3 15.1
iShares Singapore 14.3 45.8 26
iShares Switzerland 13 30 4.5
T. Rowe Price Japan 40 -5.7 0.5
T. Rowe Price Em Eur & Mediterranean 59 34.7 13.7
iShares Sweden 10.3 43.7 14.6
iShares Malaysia -0.6 36.4 32.3
Third Avenue International 18 17.1 16.4
Fidelity International Real Estate 14.9 42.9 -2.1
T. Rowe Price Real Estate 14.5 36.8 -9.5
Third Ave. Real Estate Value 14.4 30.2 -1.2
Vanguard REIT Index 11.9 35.1 -10.2
American Century Global Gold 28.9 26.8 1.9
iShares Goldman Sachs Natural Resources 36 16.4 24.4
streetTracks Gold Shares 17.8 22 6.4
T. Rowe Price New Era 29.9 17 26
Jennison Natural Resources 54.6 21.7 26.6
Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining 43.8 34.3 24.7
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities 2.6 0.4 3.0
Amer. Century 2025 (US Treasury STRIPS)   14.2 -1.6 -1.4
Dodge & Cox Income 2 5.3 1.2
Vanguard GNMA 3.3 4.3 1.1
Vanguard High-Yield Corp. 2.8 8.2 -0.7

BlackRock Funds Opportunities

Chart A in my Economic Analysis shows a pickup in market volatility. You can take advantage of higher volatility with an investment in BlackRock Enhanced Dividend Achievers Trust (BDJ) or BlackRock Global Opportunities Equity Trust (BOE). Both funds write covered calls on stocks in their portfolios. The value of options generally increases when market volatility picks up. Higher options prices allow the funds to generate more income from the calls that are written. BDJ yields 9% and trades at a 7% discount to net asset value. BOE yields 8.5% and trades at a 10% discount to NAV. Buy both funds in tax-deferred accounts.

Here & There

We now know that Europe’s Airbus A380 was dealt a savage blow when French and German engineering teams used different software to design the A380’s wiring. The multibillion-dollar fiasco sets back the A380’s delivery schedule big-time. Meanwhile, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner is on track for first delivery in May 2008. Boeing (NYSE: BA) has over $100 billion of orders and is backlogged into 2013. Continue to buy Boeing. The Luxury Goods Super-cycle is the perfect financial jet stream to carry American Express (NYSE: AXP) forward. In just the second quarter, AXP added over 2 million credit cards and saw its global-network services unit up 33% on the bottom line. Continue to buy AXP. Here’s a surprise: Copper, aluminum, and gold all peaked on exactly the same day over a year ago on 11 May 2006. Obviously, underlying fundamentals were not in play as each metal has its own control factors. What we are looking at here is the investment/speculation side absolutely controlling fundamentals. I look at gold as an alternative to fiat paper money. Go to my Chart #25 to check out the underlying rate of central bank monetary inflation and gold’s theoretical monetary value of $6,138/oz. (Only theoretical, but interesting food for thought.Make it a good month.

Warm regards,


Richard C. Young

P.S. I expect Sturm, Ruger (NYSE: RGR) to have a wedding. The recent earnings report was a sham. And the stock has now more than doubled from its low earlier in the year. I’m happy to be a seller here at $21/share. Sell. In the early 1970s, you could get nearly 4½ Swiss francs for one US$. Today, your dollar gets you only 1¼ Swiss franc. There are far fewer Swiss francs floating around the world than there are U.S. dollars, yen or euros. And the Swiss franc is not part of the euro system. A reportable Swiss bank account with a Swiss bank with zero U.S. asset exposure makes good sense. Your best guide regarding the economy is my "Moving the Goods" Chart (#9). The expansion phase continues. Regarding interest rates, my Chart #19 is your best guide to lengthening maturities. You have had four solid entry points over the last two decades, and you are nowhere close to a fifth. Stay short.

P.P.S. RIP Bill Pinkney, the last of the original Drifters. Congratulations to our U.S. Women’s World Cup Softball championship team. International first-class travelers are flocking to deluxe operations from Lufthansa, Qantas, Cathay Pacific, and Air France. U.S. airlines aren’t even on the radar. U.S. National Intelligence says Al Qaeda is after chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. The U.S. has sent a third carrier to the Gulf waters near Iran. Boeing has been awarded a contract to develop truck-mounted laser weapons to destroy rockets. A 3.5/ounce serving of grass-fed beef has only 15% the grams of fat of corn- and milk-fed beef and is higher in Omega-3s.

P.P.P.S. 40th Anniversary buttons for 1967’s Summer of Love read, "The hippies were right." Go to YoungResearch.com for K.W. insider stuff, Stax Museum road trip photos, great music recommendations from my prime music source, Acoustic Sounds, and detailed info on a new strategy report service from Young Research.

Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report® (ISSN 0884-3031) is published monthly by ACP Phillips Investment
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