A New Bull, or Just a Bear Rally?

Hey, did you miss that?

If you weren’t paying attention, you just might have missed the fact that the S&P 500 index has breached key resistance at the 200-day moving average. That is a very definitive bullish move for domestic stocks, and one that comes just two months after the worst start to a year, ever.

Now the question is: Does this mean we are in a bull market, or are we still in a bear-market rally that started in mid-February and that just hasn’t run out of fuel yet?

While I would like to say with conviction that this is the start of a new bull, I can’t yet say that with certainty. The reason is that the preceding chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) also shows a lot of overhead resistance in the trading range we saw back in December. If stocks can clear that hurdle, it could indeed be another big run higher for the bulls.

Meanwhile, overseas there was a lot of action this week as stocks around the globe reacted to the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates further into negative territory and to expand its quantitative easing (QE), bond buying program.

While stocks in Europe, Australia, the Far East and emerging markets have seen a nice move off of their respective February lows, these respective segments (see charts below) have yet to breach their 200-day moving averages the way the S&P 500 has.

Still, the momentum here of late is very encouraging for the bulls, and another week such as we’ve witnessed over the past several weeks is going to start to convince even the most obdurate bears that conditions are worthy of getting back into this market.

In fact, we’ve been persuaded that at least some key market sectors are now back in bull status, and we are taking advantage of that right now in my Successful ETF Investing advisory service.

If you want to make sure you find out what these new buys are, today, then subscribe to Successful ETF Investing right now!

ETF Talk: Ride the Consumption Wave with this Emerging Markets Fund

In this week’s ETF Talk, I examine an interesting exchange-traded fund (ETF) that is closely linked to the rise of emerging markets, the EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet and Commerce ETF (EMQQ).

Technology and commerce in up-and-coming countries are areas just beginning to hit their stride, and the world as a whole is only starting to realize the full impact of these trends. In the next five years, the number of smartphone users worldwide is expected to double, while an estimated 4.2 billion people worldwide will become consumers of both online and brick-and-mortar retail in the next 10 years.

Founded a little more than a year ago, EMQQ is designed to offer investors exposure to the “consumption” sectors of developing countries, with the fund tracking an index of leading Internet and e-commerce companies in Asia, Latin America, Africa and Europe.

While 98% of assets are allocated outside of the United States, many of the companies contained in the fund are listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ, which grants them greater transparency and more visible listing. To be included in the fund, a company must generate at least 50% of its revenue in emerging markets.

As an emerging markets ETF, EMQQ’s share price was heavily battered by the uncertainty in European and Asian markets, falling over 20% in the latter half of 2015. However, it has started to rally again as the worst of the economic storm seems to have passed. It has a small dividend yield of 0.10%, an expense ratio of 0.86% and about $13 million in assets under management. While that means EMQQ is below my recommended threshold for investment, I still think it is a fund worth bringing to your attention.

With the exception of Alibaba (7.81% of assets), you may not be too familiar with most of the biggest e-commerce, Internet and technology holdings in EMQQ. These include Chinese investment holding company Tencent, 8.33%; Naspers, a multi-country Internet and media group, 6.76%; and Baidu, a Chinese web services company, 6.22%.

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of EMQQ at ETFU.com.

If you feel that the growth of technology and commerce in emerging market countries is going to be a driving global force over the next decade, I’d recommend you spend some time checking out the EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet and Commerce ETF (EMQQ). This fund is still in its infancy. But in my mind, EMQQ shows promise.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

A Navy SEAL Talks ETFs

Last month, I had the privilege of attending one of the best conferences in my industry, the Inside ETFs Conference held in Hollywood, Florida.

This year, the conference featured a most-unusual keynote speaker, former U.S. Navy SEAL Rob O’Neill.

If you recognize the name, you probably also recognize that O’Neill is credited with perhaps the most famous kill shot in recent U.S. military history — the head shot that terminated Al-Qaeda leader and 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden.

O’Neill wasn’t allowed to provide details of that operation, but he did share other anecdotes from his days in the ultra-elite SEAL Team Six, a unit that is so secret its existence is officially denied.

The former special warfare operator related stories of heroism, teamwork, incredible adversity and uncommon valor on the part of his teammates and fellow warriors. Yet he wasn’t doing this just to impress us with his exploits.

The real reason Rob O’Neill was asked to speak at the Inside ETFs Conference is because the lessons you learn in battle also can be applied to your personal relationships, your business — and especially to your investing.

Concepts such as the importance of teamwork, the importance of flexibility and creativity, and, of course, the courage and conviction to make strong decisions and to accept responsibility for the outcome (good or bad) all are necessary conditions for successful human interactions.

All can apply to one’s own particular business, and all do apply to being a good investor.

Interestingly, my takeaway here also applied to the ETF industry.

Like any good warrior on a mission, the ETF industry involves teams of hard-working experts joining together to meet a goal. There’s also a lot innovation and creativity involved in bringing new products to market, and in implementing new ideas and strategies that allow investors to achieve their objectives.

So, in the spirit of focus, teamwork and creativity of the sort that Navy SEALs employ in battle, and that the ETF industry employs in their battles, over the next four weeks we will be taking a look at many of the interesting new ETFs I learned about at the Inside ETFs conference.

From new biotech ETFs to new emerging market funds; and from actively managed income ETFs to international consumer ETFs, the innovation just keeps on coming.

Hey, there is even a new series of ETFs created by television program Shark Tank luminary Kevin O’Leary that offers very interesting ways for investors to get market exposure.

If you’re like me, you love being inspired by people who show you what’s possible in life, and you also love learning about the new tools available in the market that give you the best chance to achieve market-beating returns.

Reagan on Getting What You Give

“I am a big believer that eventually everything comes back to you. You get back what you give out.”

–Nancy Reagan

The former first lady was being laid to rest this week, so I thought I would honor her in my small way with the above quote. Not only do I think this quote is true in a general sense, I also think it’s important for all of us to give out as much positivity as we can. After all, the world is filled with too much negativity already.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

I encourage you to read my column from last week about the recovery of emerging markets and commodities. I also invite you to comment about my column in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,

Doug Fabian