The first half of a most unusual year for the financial markets now is in the books, and that means it’s time to break out the halftime exchange-traded fund (ETF) scorecard to see which funds have led the charge higher, and how those funds compare to the exchange-traded funds representing the major market indices.
Let’s start by looking at the table below of the top-performing ETFs through the first half of the year. Note that the “%200DMA” column shows the percentage that each fund is above its 200-day moving average. This metric is important because it tells us how far extended a fund has become when compared to its long-term trend line.
|SCIF||Market Vectors India S/C||62.93||54.01|
|SCIN||Emerging Global Index India||49.44||43.25|
|GLDX||Global X Gold Explorers ETF||45.82||19.77|
|SMIN||iShares MSCI India Small Cap Index Fund||44.18||42.90|
|SILJ||Purefunds ISE Junior SIL-ETF||43.90||18.64|
|INXX||Emerging Global Shares Index||39.38||29.99|
|GDXJ||Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF||36.10||14.59|
|GGGG||Global X Pure Gold Miners ETF||35.53||15.05|
|EPI||WisdomTree India Earnings||28.84||24.79|
|TAN||Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy||26.69||11.70|
As you can see by the table of the top 10 ETFs in the first half, it’s all about India, precious metals mining stocks, emerging markets and solar. The election in India of a pro-business Prime Minister was great for stocks in that country, and the rise in gold and silver prices helped mining stocks do very well. The rise in oil prices helped cause renewed buying interest in alternative energy stocks like solar, and that prompted heavy buying in the space.
Now, as you can see, the huge gains in the top 10 ETFs pale in comparison with the still very strong performance of the major market indices. The table below shows the ETFs we use to mirror the most important market measures.
|DIA||SPDR DJIA Trust||1.46||4.32|
|SPY||SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust||5.97||7.19|
|IWM||iShares Russell 2000 ETF||2.99||5.50|
|EFA||iShares MSCI EAFE ETF||1.90||2.87|
|EEM||iShares MSCI Emerging Market||3.43||4.84|
|AGG||iShares Core U.S. Aggregate||2.79||1.55|
|TLT||iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond||11.45||5.64|
|EMB||iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond||6.57||4.40|
|GLD||SPDR Gold Shares||10.27||3.13|
|OIL||iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil||10.60||8.05|
Here we see that although there have been big gains in all of these market vital signs; we haven’t yet seen a situation where these markets have extended far beyond their respective 200-day moving averages.
The biggest move above the long-term trend line is in crude oil, with the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil (OIL) 8.05% above its 200-day moving average. Right now, gold, bonds and European equities are slightly above their long-term trend lines.
In our Successful ETF Investing advisory service, we currently have exposure to alternative energy stocks, precious metals and mining stocks and emerging markets. If you are looking for a way to generate ideas that will fit your financial goals, then you owe it to yourself to check out Successful ETF Investing today.