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The Wisdom of the Quest

May 20, 2009

Last week the market made a decided turn downward, but so far this week stocks have returned to rally mode. The big question now is: Are we still in a bear market rally, or is this the start of a new bull market?

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ETF Talk: A New Way to Invest in Hedge Funds

May 20, 2009

Last week the market made a decided turn downward, but so far this week stocks have returned to rally mode. The big question now is: Are we still in a bear market rally, or is this the start of a new bull market? […]

ETF Talk: Can Chile Spice Up Your Portfolio?

May 13, 2009

The pullback I’ve been anticipating for some time now has finally arrived.

Now, those of you who want this market to keep going up, up, up, should actually be heartened by the trading we’ve seen this week. You see, a strong pullback after such a strong surge in stocks is not only something that should be expected — it’s something that’s very healthy.

In order for a market to actually mount a real bull run, it must sell off and then consolidate. The short-term momentum players who’ve made big profits since the March 9 rally are now selling and raising cash. That cash likely will remain on the sidelines until the market settles down to more stable levels. And when we do see this market settle, that will be the time when the cash on the sidelines is funneled back into equities en masse. […]

ETF Talk: Unveiling Triple Leveraged Treasuries

May 6, 2009

The ebullient rally that’s taken this market by storm has grown a little tired in recent days, as traders await the final results of the Federal Reserve’s bank stress tests. Results of the test are due to be released late Thursday, but already there have been some leaks about which banks are in good shape, and which are likely to face an uphill battle.

It will be interesting to see the market’s reaction to the government’s two-month evaluation of the nation’s 19 largest banks. What these hypothetical scenarios are designed to do is determine their revenue, losses and capital needs, should economic conditions deteriorate even further than economists’ estimates. […]

The Wisdom of “Still”

May 6, 2009

The ebullient rally that’s taken this market by storm has grown a little tired in recent days, as traders await the final results of the Federal Reserve’s bank stress tests. Results of the test are due to be released late Thursday, but already there have been some leaks about which banks are in good shape, and which are likely to face an uphill battle. It will be interesting to see the market’s reaction to the government’s two-month evaluation of the nation’s 19 largest banks. What these hypothetical scenarios are designed to do is determine their revenue, losses and capital needs, should economic conditions deteriorate even further than economists’ estimates.

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ETF Talk: Do You Have Nerves of Steel?

April 29, 2009

Today the Federal Reserve held its key lending rate at a record low of between zero and 0.25%. The Fed’s steady stance on interest rates came complete with a gingerly bullish assessment of the economy.

Here’s the money quote from today’s Open Market Committee statement, “The economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower.” […]

Comedic Wisdom

April 29, 2009

Today the Federal Reserve held its key lending rate at a record low of between zero and 0.25%. The Fed’s steady stance on interest rates came complete with a gingerly bullish assessment of the economy. Here’s the money quote from today’s Open Market Committee statement, "The economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower."

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ETF Talk: Is the Health Sector a Cure For Market Sickness?

April 22, 2009

Even a casual market observer can’t escape the barrage of talking heads on TV and in the print media who now are claiming that the recent rally is the beginning of a new bull market.

Now I admit that the substantial surge in the market over the past six weeks has been much stronger than I expected, and if this is the start of another bull market, then I’ll admit it when the time comes. […]

Jeffersonian Science

April 22, 2009

Even a casual market observer can’t escape the barrage of talking heads on TV and in the print media who now are claiming that the recent rally is the beginning of a new bull market. Now I admit that the substantial surge in the market over the past six weeks has been much stronger than I expected, and if this is the start of another bull market, then I’ll admit it when the time comes.

[…]

The Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for a Bull Market Call

April 15, 2009

Today is tax day, a dreary day for most Americans — especially if you have the skills, ability and fortitude to earn a substantial amount of money each year. Yes, this is the day the government says, in essence, pay up, sucker!

Now you’ve probably heard about the many tax “tea parties” being held today throughout our nation. I’ve read that there were going to be well over 1,500 tax protests held around the country, with at least one taking place in all 50 states.

Where I live in Orange County, Calif., I’ve heard there will be over 50 separate local tax protests. Honestly, I can’t say that I blame anyone for feeling the need to protest the high tax burden imposed by not just the federal government, but also by state and local governments. […]

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